Early ranked choice results indicate Tilton, McCabe trail in Alaska legislature races

What you need to know:

• Sen. Cathy Tilton and Rep. Kevin McCabe led in first-choice votes on election night, but preliminary ranked choice tabulations show their challengers ahead. Ryan Berry leads Tilton 51.7% to 48.3%, while Doug Massie leads McCabe with 50.6%.
• In Wasilla's House District 28, challenger Stephen Wright led in first-choice votes, but Rep. Elexie Moore pulled ahead by just six votes after Democratic candidate Kit Kennedy's votes were redistributed.
• As many as 60,000 early and absentee ballots remain uncounted statewide, leaving the outcomes uncertain. The Division of Elections is scheduled to release official ranked choice tabulations Nov. 18. Republican incumbents DeLena Johnson and Garret Nelson also continue to lead their races.
• Short on time but need the local news scoop? Get free weekly news in your inbox for Mat-Su, from Mat-Su.

By James Brooks
Alaska Beacon

Incumbents Sen. Cathy Tilton, R-Wasilla, and Rep. Kevin McCabe, R-Big Lake, led in first-choice election results Tuesday night, but preliminary results from ranked choice runoffs show them trailing challengers in their hotly contested Matanuska-Susitna Borough legislative races.

Rep. Elexie Moore, R-Wasilla, trailed in first-choice election results but a Wednesday morning ranked choice tabulation performed by the Alaska Beacon using Division of Elections data shows her leading by six votes.

In all three races there are early and absentee ballots left to be counted, which could change the analysis.

Using RCTab, an open-source analysis and auditing tool, the Beacon analyzed a data file showing how district voters ranked the state House and Senate candidates.

Under Alaska’s election system, if no candidate for an office has more than 50% of the vote, ranked choice voting is used to elect a winner. 

The candidate with the fewest first-choice votes is eliminated, and people who voted for them have their votes redistributed to their second choice. The process repeats until only two candidates are left, and the person with the most votes wins.

Several legislative races in the Mat-Su had four candidates, increasing the likelihood that no one would top the 50% threshold. 

Results from rural Alaska — where most election precincts count ballots by hand, making immediate ranked choice tabulation impossible — were too incomplete to verify an accurate leader in those races on Wednesday.

As many as 60,000 early and absentee ballots remain uncounted statewide, and the current leaders may change as more votes are counted.

In Senate District M, where Tilton is running for a full term after being appointed to the seat by Gov. Mike Dunleavy this year, she had 33.4% of first-choice votes in ballots counted by 2:45 a.m. Wednesday. Her closest challenger was Republican Ryan Berry with 32.5%. 

Democratic candidate Pat Chesbro was third with 28.3% and Republican Zane Vrvilo was fourth with 5.5%.

Tilton has served in the House since 2015, and was appointed to the Senate seat vacated by Shelley Hughes, who resigned to run for governor. 

While the Division of Elections will not publish an official ranked choice tabulation until Nov. 18, it did publish data that allows Alaskans to perform their own analysis.

The Beacon’s analysis found that enough Chesbro and Vrvilo voters picked Berry as an alternate to give him a win over Tilton.

In the data published by the Division of Elections early Wednesday, he leads 51.7% of the vote to Tilton’s 48.3%.

In House District 30, where McCabe is seeking re-election, he had 38.4% of the vote while Republican challenger Doug Massie had 35.8%. Democratic candidate Sandra Loomis had 25.4%.

When Loomis is eliminated and her supporters’ votes are redistributed, Massie takes the lead with 50.6% of the vote. 

In Wasilla’s House District 28, Republican challenger Stephen Wright led Republican incumbent Rep. Elexie Moore in a three-way race that also featured Democratic candidate Kit Kennedy.

When Kennedy is eliminated and her votes are redistributed, Moore takes a six-vote lead over Wright.

In other multicandidate races, the ranked choice runoff doesn’t change the Republicans in the lead. In Eagle River, Republican Rep. Jamie Allard leads in both the ranked choice runoff and in first-choice votes. In Palmer, Republican Rep. DeLena Johnson does as well.

Rep. Garret Nelson, R-Sutton, leads a four-way race in House District 29 in both first-choice votes and the ranked choice runoff there.

In the race to replace Sen. Gary Stevens, R-Kodiak, current Republican Rep. Louise Stutes, R-Kodiak, leads in both first-choice votes and the ranked choice runoff.

Alaska Beacon is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Alaska Beacon maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Claire Stremple for questions: info@alaskabeacon.com.